文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：气候变化背景下藏药黑果枸杞的潜在适生区分布预测

英文题名：Prediction of the potential distribution of Tibetan medicinal Lycium ruthenicum in context of climate change

作者：林丽[1];晋玲[2];王振恒[2];崔治家[2];马毅[2]

第一作者：林丽

机构：[1]甘肃中医药大学药学院,甘肃兰州730000;[2]中(藏)药资源研究所,甘肃兰州730000

第一机构：甘肃中医药大学药学院（西北中藏药协同创新中心办公室）

年份：2017

卷号：42

期号：14

起止页码：2659

中文期刊名：中国中药杂志

外文期刊名：China Journal of Chinese Materia Medica

收录：CSTPCD;;Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85063686432);北大核心:【北大核心2014】；CSCD:【CSCD2017_2018】；PubMed(收录号：29098819);

基金：国家中医药管理局中医药行业专项(2012070025-02);2012年甘肃省中医药管理局项目(GZK-2012-21);甘肃省科技计划基础研究创新群体项目(1606RJIA323);中央财政引导地方科技创新平台项目(2016-A-02)

语种：中文

中文关键词：藏药;黑果枸杞;潜在适生区;最大熵模型

外文关键词：Tibetan medicine; Lycium ruthenicum; potential suitable region; Maxent

摘要：在气候变化背景下预测藏药黑果枸杞在当代及未来的适生区分布格局,为其资源可持续利用及GAP规范化种植提供参考。基于黑果枸杞149个分布数据及当代(1950—2000年)和未来(21世纪20—80年代)的气候数据,同时考虑3种温室气体排放场景,应用最大墒模型(Maxent)和地理信息系统(Arc GIS 10.3.1)软件,定量地预测了黑果枸杞在我国的潜在适生区及其适生等级。发现:(1)黑果枸杞的当代适生区主要分布于我国新疆、青海、甘肃、内蒙古、宁夏,陕西、山西、西藏境内也发现分布区;(2)黑果枸杞当代适生区总面积为284.506 949×104km2,占中国国土面积的29.6%;(3)相对稳定区域为总适生区的25.2%;(4)气候变化背景下,相较于当代,其在21世纪20—80年代的适生区总面积均有不同程度的减少,但是中度适生区又有不同程度的增加。气候变化对黑果枸杞适生区总面积及生境适宜度均会产生不同程度的双面影响。通过以气候变化为主导因素的黑果枸杞潜在适生区分布预测,可为今后科学的保护、开发与利用黑果枸杞资源提供战略性指导。
To predict the suitable distribution patterns of Lycium ruthenicum in the present and future under the background of cli- mate change, and provide reference for the resources sustainable utilization and GAP standardized planting. The software of Maxent and ArcGis was used to predict the potential suitable regions and grades of L. ruthenicum in China based on the 149 distribution informa- tion, climate data of contemporary （1950-2000） and future （20-80 decade of 21 century）, and considering of three greenhouse gaseous emission scenario. The results showed that：the suitable distribution regions of L. ruthenicum are mainly concentrated in Xin- jiang, Qinghai, Gansu, Neimenggu, and Ningxia province in present. In addition, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Xizang are also distribution regions. The suitable distribution area of L. ruthenicum is 284. 506 949 ×10^4 km2, accounted for 29. 6% of the land area of China. The relatively stable area of the suitable regions accounted for 25.2% of the total suitable region area. Under the background of climate change, compared with contemporary, the total area of suitable region is reducing and moderately suitable area is increasing at different degree at the 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, 70, 80 decade of 21 century. Climate change both can change the total area of suitable regions and habitat suitability of L. ruthenicum. It could provide a strategic guidance for protection, development and utilization of L. ruthenicum though the prediction of potential suitable regions distribution of L. ruthenicum based on the mainly factor of climate change.