文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：1990—2019年中国归因于吸烟的消化系统疾病负担分析与模型预测

英文题名：Analysis and model prediction of the burden of digestive diseases attributed to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019

作者：汪哲[1,2];李娜[1,2];包云丽[1,2];唐海茹[1,2];郑英[1];于晓辉[1]

第一作者：汪哲

机构：[1]中国人民解放军联勤保障部队第九四〇医院消化内科,兰州730000;[2]甘肃中医药大学第一临床医学院,兰州730000

第一机构：中国人民解放军联勤保障部队第九四〇医院消化内科,兰州730000

年份：2023

卷号：23

期号：11

起止页码：1247

中文期刊名：中国循证医学杂志

外文期刊名：Chinese Journal of Evidence-based Medicine

收录：CSTPCD;;Scopus;北大核心:【北大核心2020】；CSCD:【CSCD2023_2024】；

基金：甘肃省重点研发项目(编号:20YF8FA099);甘肃省非感染性肝病临床医学研究中心(编号:21JR7RA017);甘肃省青年科技基金计划(编号:21JR7RA010)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：消化系统疾病;吸烟;疾病负担;预测;疾病预防

外文关键词：Digestive diseases;Smoking;Burden of disease;Prediction;Disease prevention

摘要：目的分析1990—2019年中国归因于吸烟的消化系统疾病负担并对其未来10年的变化进行预测。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担数据库提取数据,分析1990—2019年中国归因于吸烟的消化系统疾病负担;采用Joinpoint回归模型分析其时间变化趋势;通过时间序列模型预测未来10年归因于吸烟的消化系统疾病负担。结果2019年,中国归因于吸烟的消化系统疾病的死亡数1.29万例,DALY 39.86万人年。归因粗死亡率0.91/10万,粗DALY率28.02/10万。归因标化死亡率0.69/10万,标化DALY率19.79/10万,高于全球水平。2019年,男性归因标化死亡率、DALY率均高于女性(1.48/10万vs.0.11/10万、38.42/10万vs.2.93/10万),男女性归因标化率均随时间变化呈下降趋势。2019年,归因于吸烟的消化系统疾病死亡率和DALY率均随着年龄的增长呈上升趋势。ARIMA预测,未来10年,因吸烟导致的消化系统疾病负担将会明显减少。结论1990—2019年,中国归因于吸烟的消化系统疾病负担呈下降趋势,老年人群和男性的疾病负担仍然较重,应该采取一系列有效措施,减少重点人群的吸烟率。未来10年,由于吸烟引起的消化系统疾病负担将明显减少。
Objective To analyze the burden of digestive diseases attributed to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019 and forecast its change in the next 10 years.Methods The Global Burden of Disease database 2019 was used to analyze the burden of digestive diseases attributed to smoking in China from 1990 to 2019.Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the time variation trend.A time series model was used to predict the burden of digestive diseases attributable to smoking over the next 10 years.Results In 2019,there were 12900 deaths from digestive diseases attributed to smoking in China,with a DALY of 398600 years,a crude death rate of 0.91/100000 and a crude DALY rate of 28.02/100000.The attributed standardized mortality rate was 0.69 per 100000,and the standardized DALY rate was 19.79 per 100000,which was higher than the global level.In 2019,the standardized mortality rate and DALY rate of males were higher than those of females(1.48/100000 vs.0.11/100000,38.42/100000 vs.293/100000),and the standardized rates of males and females showed a downward trend over time.In 2019,both mortality and DALY rates from digestive diseases attributed to smoking increased with age.ARIMA predicts that over the next 10 years,the burden of disease in the digestive system caused by smoking will decrease significantly.Conclusion From 1990 to 2019,the burden of digestive diseases attributed to smoking showed a decreasing trend in China,and the problem of disease burden is more serious in men and the elderly population.A series of effective measures should be taken to reduce the smoking rate in key groups.The burden of digestive diseases caused by smoking will be significantly reduced in the next 10 years.