文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Development and Validation of a Nomogram Model for the Risk of Cardiac Death in Patients Treated with Chemotherapy for Esophageal Cancer

作者：Lv, Xinfang[1,3];Wu, Xue[2,3];Liu, Kai[3];Zhao, Xinke[3];Pan, Chenliang[4];Zhao, Jing[4];Chang, Juan[5];Guo, Huan[6];Gao, Xiang[3];Zhi, Xiaodong[3];Ren, Chunzhen[3];Chen, Qilin[3];Jiang, Hugang[3];Wang, Chunling[3];Li, Yingdong[3]

第一作者：Lv, Xinfang

通信作者：Li, YD[1]

机构：[1]Gansu Univ Tradit Chinese Med, Dept Geriatr, Affiliated Hosp, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;[2]Lanzhou Univ, Hosp 2, Dept Cardiol, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;[3]Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Sch Integrat Med, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;[4]Lanzhou Univ, Hosp 1, Cardiovasc Dis Ctr, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;[5]Gansu Prov Hosp, Dept Tradit Med, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;[6]Gansu Prov Acad Inst Med Res, Ctr Translat Med, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China

第一机构：甘肃中医药大学第二附属医院

通信机构：[1]corresponding author), Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Sch Integrat Med, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China.|[10735]甘肃中医药大学;

年份：2023

卷号：23

期号：11-12

起止页码：377

外文期刊名：CARDIOVASCULAR TOXICOLOGY

收录：;Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85173742312);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:001087357500003)】；

基金：We thank the National Cancer Institute for providing access to the data in the SEER database.

语种：英文

外文关键词：Esophageal cancer; Chemotherapy; Cardiac death; Nomogram; Cardio-oncology

摘要：The primary cause of mortality in esophageal cancer survivors is cardiac death. Early identification of cardiac mortality risk during chemotherapy for esophageal cancer is crucial for improving the prognosis. We developed and validated a nomogram model to identify patients with high cardiac mortality risk after chemotherapy for esophageal cancer for early screening and clinical decision-making. We randomly allocated 37,994 patients with chemotherapy-treated esophageal cancer into two groups using a 7:3 split ratio: model training (n = 26,598) and validation (n = 11,396). 5- and 10-year survival rates were used as endpoints for model training and validation. Decision curve analysis and the consistency index (C-index) were used to evaluate the model's net clinical advantage. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and computing the area under the curve (AUC). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis based on the prognostic index was performed. Patient risk was stratified according to the death probability. Age, surgery, sex, and year were most closely related to cardiac death and used to plot the nomograms. The C-index for the training and validation datasets were 0.669 and 0.698, respectively, indicating the nomogram's net clinical advantage in predicting cardiac death risk at 5 and 10 years. The 5- and 10-year AUCs were 0.753 and 0.772 for the training dataset and 0.778 and 0.789 for the validation dataset, respectively. The accuracy of the model in predicting cardiac death risk was moderate. This nomogram can identify patients at risk of cardiac death after chemotherapy for esophageal cancer at an early stage.