文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Establishment of nomogram of early death in elderly pancreatic cancer patients with liver metastasis

作者：Wu, Yang[1,2];Li, Tian[2,3];Zhang, Runbing[1,2];Shi, Tingting[1,2];Wang, Shunna[1,2];Zhu, Lingling[1,2];Zhang, Yani[1,2];Zheng, Xiaofeng[4];Yu, Xiaohui[1];Zhang, Jiucong[1]

第一作者：Wu, Yang;武燕;吴艳

通信作者：Zhang, JC[1]

机构：[1]PLA, 940th Hosp Joint Logist Support Force, Dept Gastroenterol, Lanzhou 730050, Gansu, Peoples R China;[2]Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Clin Med Coll 1, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China;[3]PLA, 940th Hosp Joint Logist Support Force, Dept Nephrol, Lanzhou 730050, Gansu, Peoples R China;[4]Lanzhou Univ, Dept Gastroenterol, Hosp 2, Lanzhou 730030, Peoples R China

第一机构：PLA, 940th Hosp Joint Logist Support Force, Dept Gastroenterol, Lanzhou 730050, Gansu, Peoples R China

通信机构：[1]corresponding author), PLA, 940th Hosp Joint Logist Support Force, Dept Gastroenterol, Lanzhou 730050, Gansu, Peoples R China.

年份：2025

卷号：16

期号：1

外文期刊名：DISCOVER ONCOLOGY

收录：;Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-105000406847);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:001446870200010)】；

基金：We thank the SEER database for providing clinical information.

语种：英文

外文关键词：Elderly; Nomogram; Pancreatic cancer (PC); Liver metastasis (LM); Early death (ED); Surveillance; Epidemiology; End result (SEER) database

摘要：BackgroundMany elderly patients with pancreatic cancer (PC) often have liver metastasis (LM), and these patients often have poor prognosis and early death (ED). However, few models can accurately predict ED from elderly PC patients with LM. Therefore, we aim to create nomograms to predict ED in elderly PC patients with LM.MethodsAll elderly (>= 60 years old) PC patients with LM from 2010 to 2020 were downloaded from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database according to the admission criteria. The included data was randomly divided into the training set and the validation set, with a ratio of 7:3. The risk factors for ED in elderly PC patients with LM were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression methods, and a nomogram model was established. Lastly, the nomogram is verified by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsA total of 1,424 elderly PC patients with LM were randomly divided into training set (n = 996) and validation set (n = 428) based on the ratio of 7:3. The independent prognostic factors for ED include T stage, N stage, surgery, chemotherapy, lung metastasis, and other metastases. These variables were used to create nomograms, where the AUC of the training set and the validation set were 0.83 (95% CI 0.80-0.85) and 0.81 (95% CI 0.77-0.85), respectively. Furthermore, the calibration curve shows that the predicted ED is in good agreement with the actual value. DCA also shows good clinical application value.ConclusionsThe developed nomogram can be used to predict the specific probability of ED in elderly PC patients with LM, which is useful in guiding the early prevention and treatment decision-making of this group of people.