文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：2012—2023年甘肃省丙型病毒性肝炎流行病学特征分析及发病趋势预测

英文题名：Epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend fitting of hepatitis C in Gansu province from 2012 to 2023:surveillance data analysis with GM(1,1)model,linear and nonlinear regression

作者：王婷[1];宋伟[1];孙钟铭[1];王引弟[1];李三三[1];汪永锋[1];李莉[2];吴建军[1]

第一作者：王婷

机构：[1]甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院,兰州730000;[2]甘肃省疾病预防控制中心,兰州730000

第一机构：甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院

年份：2024

卷号：40

期号：7

起止页码：777

中文期刊名：中国公共卫生

外文期刊名：Chinese Journal of Public Health

收录：CSTPCD;;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；CSCD:【CSCD2023_2024】；

基金：2020年度甘肃省高等学校产业支撑计划项目(2020C–36)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝);流行病学特征;发病趋势;预测

外文关键词：hepatitis C;epidemiological characteristics;incidence trend;forecast

摘要：目的分析2012—2023年甘肃省丙型病毒性肝炎(简称“丙肝”)的流行病学特征并对2024—2025年的丙肝发病趋势进行预测,为居民丙肝防治策略的制定提供参考依据。方法收集中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统中甘肃省2012年1月1日—2023年12月31日报告的丙肝发病数据,对甘肃省丙肝发病的流行病学特征进行描述性分析,并应用GM(1,1)模型和曲线回归模型对丙肝年发病数进行拟合,选择最优模型预测2024—2025年甘肃省居民的丙肝发病趋势。结果2012—2023年甘肃省共报告丙肝发病83306例,年均发病率为26.53/10万;2012、2013、2014、2015、2016、2017、2018、2019、2020、2021、2022和2023年丙肝发病率依次为34.93/10万、29.10/10万、25.87/10万、30.21/10万、24.28/10万、29.71/10万、29.47/10万、28.04/10万、23.40/10万、22.49/10万、19.62/10万和21.29/10万,2012—2023年丙肝发病率总体呈下降趋势(χ趋势2=458.167,P=0.006),年均下降率为1.13%。甘肃省2012—2023年不同地区丙肝年均发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=431.086,P=0.007),居于前3位的地区分别为武威市、张掖市和兰州市,丙肝年均发病率依次为96.78/10万、63.62/10万和34.13/10万。甘肃省2012—2023年男性人群丙肝年均发病率(31.27/10万)高于女性人群(19.36/10万),差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=307.512,P=0.008);不同年龄人群丙肝年均发病率差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=53.104,P=0.007),其中以45~54岁人群丙肝年均发病率最高(46.13/10万);居于丙肝发病首位的职业为农民,2012—2023年共报告丙肝发病53716例,占总发病数的64.48%。对2种模型进行比较发现,GM(1,1)模型的平均绝对误差(MAE)和平均相对误差(MAPE)分别为525.3和0.06%,均低于二次曲线回归模型MAE和MAPE的551.0和0.07%,GM(1,1)模型的拟合效果更好,该模型预测的甘肃省2024和2025年丙肝发病数分别为5051和4789例,丙肝发病呈下降趋势。结论2012—2023年甘肃省丙肝发病呈下降趋势,以男性、45~54岁和农民为该地区丙肝发病的高危人群,GM(1,1)模型对丙肝发病趋势的预测效果较好,应结合预测情况和流行病学特征对丙肝采取综合性的预防措施。
Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C incidence and incidence trend from 2012 to 2023 and predict the incidence for 2024–2025 in Gansu province for the development of hepatitis C prevention and control strategies among local residents.Methods Data on hepatitis C incidence reported in Gansu province from 2012 to 2023 were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.A descriptive analysis of the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C incidence in Gansu province was conducted,and both the GM(1,1)model,linear and nonlinear curve regression analysis were performed to fit the annual incidence of hepatitis C.The optimal model was selected to predict the incidence of hepatitis C incidence for 2024–2025 among residents of Gansu province.Results During the 12-year period,a total of 83306 hepatitis C cases were reported in Gansu province,with an average annual incidence rate(1/100000)of 26.53 and annual specific incidence rates of 34.93,29.10,25.87,30.21,24.28,29.71,29.47,28.04,23.40,22.49,19.62,and 21.29 for the years from 2012 to 2023,respectively.There was an overall downward trend in the hepatitis C incidence rate during this period(χ^(2)trend=458.167,P=0.006),with an average annual decrease of 1.13%.The average annual incidence rate of hepatitis C varied significantly among different regions of the province(χ^(2)trend=431.086,P=0.007),with the top three average annual incidence rates of 96.78,63.62,and 34.13 for Wuwei,Zhangye,and Lanzhou municipalities.The average annual incidence rate of hepatitis C for the male population(31.27)was significantly higher than that for the female population(19.36)(χ^(2)=307.512,P=0.008)and the rate differed significantly among the populations of different age groups(χ^(2)trend=53.104,P=0.007),with the highest rate(46.13)for the population aged 45–54 years.The majority of the hepatitis C cases reported during the period(51928,64.48%of the total)were among farmers.Comparison of two models to fit the incidence data showed that the GM(1,1)model,with a mean absolute error(MAE)of 525.3 and a mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 0.06%,outperformed the quadratic curve regression model,which had an MAE of 551.0 and a MAPE of 0.07%,indicating a better fit of the GM(1,1)model.Based on the GM(1,1)model analysis,the predicted number of hepatitis C cases in Gansu province would be 5958 in 2024 and 5801 in 2025,with a declining trend.Conclusion The incidence of hepatitis C in Gansu province from 2012 to 2023 showed a decreasing trend,with a higher incidence rate among males,people aged 45–54 years,and farmers.The GM(1,1)model performs well in predicting the incidence trend of hepatitis C.The results suggest that comprehensive preventive measures against hepatitis C should be taken.