文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：近20年甘肃省苹果4种主要病害发生分析及趋势预测

英文题名：Analysis on the four major diseases of apple in the past 20 years and occurrence prediction in Gansu Province

作者：张鼎新[1];徐秉良[2];陈臻[3];曾翠云[4];姜仲辉[5]

第一作者：张鼎新

机构：[1]甘肃省陇西县农业技术推广中心,甘肃陇西748100;[2]甘肃农业大学植物保护学院,甘肃兰州730070;[3]兰州资源环境职业技术学院,甘肃兰州730021;[4]甘肃中医药大学,甘肃兰州730070;[5]甘肃省植保植检站,甘肃兰州730020

第一机构：甘肃省陇西县农业技术推广中心,甘肃陇西748100

年份：2021

卷号：10

期号：2

起止页码：237

中文期刊名：土壤与作物

外文期刊名：Soils and Crops

收录：CSTPCD

基金：甘肃省现代水果产业体系项目(GARS-SG-2);甘肃省高等学校创新基金项目(2020A-222);2020年兰州资源环境职业技术学院院级科研项目(Y2020C-01);甘肃省自然科学基金(20JR5RA187);甘肃省中医药研究中心2019-2020年度开放课题(zyzx-2020-30);甘肃中医药大学脱贫攻坚扶贫科技专项(2019PFZX-6);甘肃省高校中(藏)药化学与质量研究省级重点实验室开放基金项目(zzy-2019-02).

语种：中文

中文关键词：苹果;病害;趋势;预测

外文关键词：apple;disease;trend;prediction

摘要：利用指数平滑法对甘肃省2000-2019年苹果树腐烂病、苹果枝干轮纹病、苹果褐斑病和苹果斑点落叶病4种病害发生程度进行基本趋势分析,并用2020年的发生值进行了验证,预测了2021-2022年的发生趋势,分析了发生程度与发生面积的相关性。结果表明:苹果树腐烂病、苹果枝干轮纹病、苹果褐斑病和苹果斑点落叶病4种主要病害2020年拟合值接近实际,预测在甘肃2021-2022年2年内均呈上升趋势,其中,苹果树腐烂病发病趋势将较缓,其他3种病害的发生将呈较快上升趋势,需加强病害预防和控制。相关分析表明,甘肃省4种苹果主要病害发生程度与发生面积之间无相关性。本研究为指数平滑法短期预测苹果病害提供了理论依据。
In this paper,the exponential smoothing method was used to analyze the basic occurrence of four main diseases of apple,Valsa mali,Botryosphaeria berengeriana,Marssonina mali and Alternaria mali from 2000 to 2019 in Gansu Province.The actual occurrence data for the four diseases in 2020 were used for the verification.The occurrence trend of the four disease from 2021-2022 was predicted and the correlation between the occurrence degree and the occurrence area was analyzed.The results showed that the fitted values of the four major diseases were quite close to the actual value in 2020,and an upward trend of occurrence in Gansu Province from 2021 to 2022 for the four diseases was predicted.Among them,the incidence of apple tree Valsa mali would be light,while the other three diseases would be occurred with rapid upward trends.Disease prevention and control was required to be strengthened.Correlation analysis showed that there was no correlation between the occurrence degree and the occurrence area of the four major apple diseases in Gansu Province.This study provided a theoretical basis for short-term apple diseases prediction.