文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Exploration of influenza incidence prediction model based on meteorological factors in Lanzhou, China, 2014-2017

作者：Du, Meixia[1,2];Zhu, Hai[1];Yin, Xiaochun[1,3];Ke, Ting[1];Gu, Yonge[1,3];Li, Sheng[4];Li, Yongjun[5];Zheng, Guisen[1,3]

第一作者：Du, Meixia

通信作者：Yin, XC[1];Yin, XC[2];Li, S[3]

机构：[1]Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Sch Publ Hlth, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;[2]Gansu Prov Canc Hosp, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;[3]Collaborat Innovat Ctr Prevent & Control Chinese, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;[4]First Peoples Hosp Lanzhou City, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;[5]Gansu Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China

第一机构：甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院

通信机构：[1]corresponding author), Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Sch Publ Hlth, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;[2]corresponding author), Collaborat Innovat Ctr Prevent & Control Chinese, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;[3]corresponding author), First Peoples Hosp Lanzhou City, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China.|[10735e9d5e7087247e71b]甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院;[10735]甘肃中医药大学;

年份：2022

卷号：17

期号：12

外文期刊名：PLOS ONE

收录：;Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-85144156195);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:000925175100023)】；

基金：This work was supported by Innovation Fund Project of Higher Education in Gansu Province (2021B-159), Open Foundation of Collaborative Innovation Center for Prevention and Control by Chinese Medicine on Disease Related Northwestern Environment and Nutrition (99860202) and Open Foundation of Traditional Chinese Medicine Research Center of Gansu Province (ZYZX-2020-ZX16), Talent introduction project of Gansu University of Chinese Medicine (2018YJRC-10). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

语种：英文

摘要：Humans are susceptible to influenza. The influenza virus spreads quickly and behave seasonally. The seasonality and spread of influenza are often associated with meteorological factors and have spatio-temporal differences. Based on the influenza cases and daily average meteorological factors in Lanzhou from 2014 to 2017, this study firstly aimed to analyze the characteristics of influenza incidence in Lanzhou and the impact of meteorological factors on influenza activities. Then, SARIMA(X) models for the prediction were established. The influenza cases in Lanzhou from 2014 to 2017 was more male than female, and the younger the age, the higher the susceptibility; the epidemic characteristics showed that there is a peak in winter, a secondary peak in spring, and a trough in summer and autumn. The influenza cases in Lanzhou increased with increasing daily pressure, decreasing precipitation, average relative humidity, hours of sunshine, average daily temperature and average daily wind speed. Low temperature was a significant driving factor for the increase of transmission intensity of seasonal influenza. The SARIMAX (1,0,0)(1,0,1)[12] multivariable model with average temperature has better prediction performance than the university model. This model is helpful to establish an early warning system, and provide important evidence for the development of influenza control policies and public health interventions.