文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：1992—2021年中国老年居民慢性阻塞性肺疾病发病趋势年龄-时期-队列分析

英文题名：Age-period-cohort analysis of the incidence trend of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease among elderly residents in China from 1992 to 2021

作者：潘萌萌[1];张勰[2]

第一作者：潘萌萌

机构：[1]甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院,兰州730000;[2]甘肃中医药大学卫生管理学院,兰州730000

第一机构：甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院

年份：2025

卷号：41

期号：3

起止页码：279

中文期刊名：中国公共卫生

外文期刊名：Chinese Journal of Public Health

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

语种：中文

中文关键词：慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD);发病趋势;年龄-时期-队列(APC)模型;老年居民;中国

外文关键词：chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD);incidence trend;age-period-cohort(APC)model;elderly residents;China

摘要：目的了解中国老年居民慢性阻塞性肺疾病(COPD)的发病趋势,为我国COPD防治策略的优化提供参考依据。方法收集2021年全球疾病负担研究(GBD 2021)数据库中1992—2021年中国≥60岁老年居民COPD发病相关数据,采用发病数、发病率和标化发病率等指标进行描述性分析,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析中国老年居民COPD发病率的变化趋势并计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC),并应用年龄-时期-队列(APC)模型拟合并估计中国老年居民COPD发病风险中的年龄效应、时期效应和队列效应。结果中国总体、男性和女性老年居民COPD发病率分别从1992年的1374.91/10万、1359.40/10万和1389.29/10万下降至2021年的1207.43/10万、1237.97/10万和1179.24/10万,标化发病率分别从1992年的1548.64/10万、1590.77/10万和1515.03/10万下降至2021年的1252.95/10万、1331.37/10万和1190.16/10万,标化发病率的AAPC值分别为-0.73%、-0.61%和-0.83%(均P<0.05)。APC模型分析结果显示,中国总体、男性和女性老年居民COPD发病率的年龄效应均随年龄的增长呈上升趋势,年龄效应系数分别从60~64岁的-0.817、-0.791和-0.861上升至90~94岁的0.521、0.611和0.504;中国总体和女性老年居民COPD发病率的时期效应均随时期的推移呈先下降后上升趋势,时期效应系数分别从1992—1996年的0.013和0.033下降至2007—2011年的-0.028和-0.059而后上升至2017—2021年的0.013和0.024,男性老年居民COPD发病率的时期效应均随时期的推移呈总体上升趋势,时期效应系数从1992—1996年的-0.017上升至2017—2021年的0.014;中国总体、男性和女性老年居民COPD发病率的出生队列效应系数均随出生年份的推移呈下降趋势,分别从1902—1906年的0.255、0.194和0.283下降至1957—1961年的-0.279、-0.307和-0.258。结论1992—2021年中国老年居民COPD标化发病率总体呈下降趋势,但男性和高龄老年居民COPD的疾病负担仍持续加重。
Objective To understand the incidence trends of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)among elderly adults in China and to provide a reference for optimizing COPD prevention and control strategies in China.Methods Data related to the incidence of COPD among Chinese residents aged≥60 years from 1992 to 2021 were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021(GBD 2021)database.Descriptive analyses were conducted using indicators such as the number of incident cases,incidence rate,and age-standardized incidence rate.Joinpoint regression models were used to analyze the trends in COPD incidence among elderly adults in China and to calculate the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC).Age-period-cohort(APC)models were applied to fit and estimate the age,period,and cohort effects on the risk of COPD incidence among elderly adults in China.Results The incidence rates of COPD among elderly adults in China overall,males,and females decreased from 1374.91/1000001359.40/100000,and 1389.29/100000 in 1992 to 1252.95/100000,1207.43/100000,and 1179.24/100000 in 2021,respectively.The age-standardized incidence rates decreased from 1548.64/100000,1590.77/100000,and 1515.03/100000 in 1992 to 1252.95/100000,1331.37/100000,and 1190.16/100000 in 2021,respectively.The AAPCs of the age-standardized incidence rates were-0.73%,-0.61%,and-0.83%,respectively(all P<0.05).The APC model analysis showed that the age effects on COPD incidence among elderly adults in China overall,males,and females all showed an increasing trend with age,with the age effect coefficients increasing from-0.817,-0.791,and-0.861 for ages 60-64 to 0.521,0.611,and 0.504 for ages 90-94,respectively.The period effects on COPD incidence among elderly adults in China overall and females showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing over time,with the period effect coefficients decreasing from 0.013 and 0.033 for the period 1992-1996 to-0.028 and-0.059 for the period 2007-2011,and then increasing to 0.013 and 0.024 for the period 2017-2021,respectively.The period effects on COPD incidence among elderly male adults showed an overall increasing trend over time,with the period effect coefficients increasing from-0.017 for the period 1992-1996 to 0.014 for the period 2017-2021.The birth cohort effects on COPD incidence among elderly adults in China overall,males,and females all showed a decreasing trend with birth year,decreasing from 0.255,0.194,and 0.283 for the birth cohort 1902-1906 to-0.279,-0.307,and-0.258 for the birth cohort 1957-1961,respectively.Conclusions The age-standardized incidence rate of COPD among elderly adults in China showed an overall decreasing trend from 1992 to 2021,but the disease burden of COPD among males and elderly adults at advanced ages continues to increase.