文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：中国2009~2019年≥60岁居民糖尿病死亡率趋势分析及预测

英文题名：Trend Analysis and Prediction of Diabetes Mortality in Persons≥60 Years Old in China from 2009 to 2019

作者：丁峰峰[1];闫春娟[1];郭鹏[1];郭敏皓[1];曹良佳[1];马明艳[1];陈雪莲[1];胡继宏[1,2]

第一作者：丁峰峰

机构：[1]甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院,兰州730000;[2]甘肃中医药大学科研实验中心,兰州730000

第一机构：甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院

年份：2023

卷号：44

期号：3

起止页码：265

中文期刊名：国际老年医学杂志

外文期刊名：International Journal of Geriatrics

收录：CSTPCD

基金：国家自然科学基金项目(81960614);国际科技合作类项目(20YF3WA020)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：糖尿病;死亡率;趋势分析;预测

外文关键词：Diabetes;Mortality;Trend analysis;Prediction

摘要：目的了解中国2009~2019年≥60岁居民糖尿病死亡水平、变化趋势及趋势预测,为糖尿病的防控提供支持。方法数据来自全国疾病监测系统死亡数据资料,采用线性趋势χ2检验分析2009~2019年中国≥60岁居民各年龄组、性别及城乡糖尿病死亡率的变化趋势,运用灰色GM(1,1)模型进行预测。结果2009~2019年中国≥60岁居民糖尿病死亡率由65.14/10万上升到75.15/10万(P<0.001)。年龄≥65岁的其他年龄组居民糖尿病的死亡率也均呈上升趋势(P<0.001),年龄≥85岁居民的糖尿病死亡率的年均增长速度最快(2.803%)且增幅最大(24.152%)。男女性和城乡居民糖尿病死亡率均呈上升趋势(P<0.001),且糖尿病死亡率女性高于男性、城市高于农村(P<0.001),糖尿病死亡率的年均增长速度男性高于女性、农村高于城市。通过灰色GM(1,1)模型预测,到2024年中国≥60岁居民糖尿病死亡率将上升到86.89/10万。结论2009~2019年中国≥60岁居民糖尿病死亡率呈上升趋势,女性糖尿病死亡率高于男性、城市高于农村,预测到2024年糖尿病死亡率保持上升趋势,应加强对≥60岁居民糖尿病的综合防控。
Objective To understand the status,change trend and trend prediction of diabetes death in persons≥60 years old in China from 2009 to 2019,so as to provide support for the prevention and control of diabetes.Methods The data of diabetes mortality were collected from the national disease surveillance system.The linear trendχ2 test was used to analyze the trend of diabetes mortality in persons≥60 years old in China from 2009 to 2019 by age,sex and place of residence.The GM(1,1)model was used for prediction analysis.Results From 2009 to 2019,the mortality rate of diabetes in persons≥60 years old in China increased from 65.14/100,000 to 75.15/100,000(P<0.001).The mortality rate of diabetes in persons aged≥65 years also showed an increasing trend(P<0.001).The persons aged≥85 years had the fastest average annual growth rate of diabetes mortality(2.803%)and the largest increase(24.152%).The mortality rate of diabetes in females and males,urban and rural residents showed an upward trend(P<0.001).The mortality rate of diabetes in females was higher than that in males,and that in urban areas was higher than that in rural areas(P<0.001).The average annual growth rate of diabetes mortality in males was higher than that in females,and that in rural areas was higher than that in urban areas.The GM(1,1)model predicted that the mortality rate of diabetes in Chinese residents≥60 years old would rise to 86.89/100,000 by 2024.Conclusion From 2009 yar to 2019 year,the diabetes mortality rate of persons≥60 years old in China has shown an upward trend.The diabetes mortality rate of women is higher than that of men,and the mortality rate of urban residents is higher than that of rural residents.It is predicted that by 2024,the diabetes mortality rate will maintain an upward trend,and the comprehensive prevention and control of diabetes in adults≥60 years old should be strengthened.