文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Impacts of climate change on the suitable habitat of Angelica sinensis and analysis of its drivers in China

作者：Xi, Shaoyang[1,2,3];Guo, Xudong[1,2,3];Ma, Xiaohui[1,2,3];Jin, Ling[1,2,3]

第一作者：席时燕

通信作者：Jin, L[1];Jin, L[2];Jin, L[3]

机构：[1]Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Coll Pharm, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China;[2]Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Gansu Pharmaceut Ind Innovat Res Inst, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China;[3]Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Northwest Collaborat Innovat Ctr Tradit Chinese Me, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China

第一机构：甘肃中医药大学药学院（西北中藏药协同创新中心办公室）

通信机构：[1]corresponding author), Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Coll Pharm, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China;[2]corresponding author), Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Gansu Pharmaceut Ind Innovat Res Inst, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China;[3]corresponding author), Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Northwest Collaborat Innovat Ctr Tradit Chinese Me, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.|[10735]甘肃中医药大学;[1073501e14fb35863569f]甘肃中医药大学药学院（西北中藏药协同创新中心办公室）;

年份：2025

卷号：15

期号：1

外文期刊名：SCIENTIFIC REPORTS

收录：;WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:001409555900016)】；

基金：The author would like to acknowledge financial support from the Strategic Research and Consulting Project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering (No. GS2021ZDA06), and the Ecological Planting, and Quality Assurance Project of Daodi Medicinal Materials (China Science and Technology for Traditional Chinese Medicine (2020) 153), and Chinese Academy of Traditional Chinese Medicine Traditional Chinese Medicine Resource Center, Research on the Changes of Angelica sinensis Production Areas and Production Regionalization (NO.ZYZX-2023-KY-083).

语种：英文

外文关键词：Angelica Sinensis; Climate change; CMIP6; Species distribution; Chemical composition

摘要：Climate change is shifting optimal habitats for medicinal plants, potentially compromising the efficacy and therapeutic value of herbal remedies. Global warming and increased extreme weather events threaten the sustainability and pharmaceutical integrity of Angelica sinensis (Oliv.) Diels (A. sinensis). Despite its importance in traditional herbal medicine, there is limited research on adaptation of A. sinensis to climate challenges. This study systematically collected occurrence data of A. sinensis through field expeditions and online databases, using the Maxent ecological niche modeling tool and ArcGIS software to forecast suitable habitats. A total of 402 species occurrence points and 21 environmental variables were selected for modeling, resulting in 1,160 distribution models, of which only one met the stringent 5% odds ratio (OR) standard. The optimal model exhibited a pROC value of 0, an OR of 0.0196, and an AICc score of 9,287.133. The model, run ten times for robustness, showed an average AUC of 0.980, indicating high accuracy and reliability. Under current climate conditions, suitable habitats for A. sinensis cover approximately 13% of mainland China, primarily in Gansu (73.77%), Qinghai (14.73%), and Sichuan (11.18%) provinces. Environmental factors such as altitude, humidity, and temperature significantly influence the geographical distribution of A. sinensis. The future climate scenario predictions suggest that suitable habitats will generally shift towards higher latitudes, with areas of moderate to high suitability primarily distributed across the provinces of Gansu and Qinghai. The interactions between environmental factors, characterized by mutual and nonlinear enhancement, further influence the spatial differentiation of suitability zones. Overlay analysis with 2020 land cover data indicated that 861,437 km(2) of arable and forest land are suitable for A. sinensis cultivation. Future predictions under four SSP scenarios show varying changes in suitable habitat areas, with the most significant expansion under SSP370 between 2080 and 2100, covering 14.54% of mainland China. These findings provide critical insights for optimizing A. sinensis cultivation regions and quality assessments in response to climate change.