文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：1990—2021年我国精神障碍疾病负担分析与预测

英文题名：Prediction and analysis of disease burden of mental disorders in China from 1990 to 2021

作者：蒋露[1];张志东[1];吴建军[1];刘璐[1];商珑健[1];魏兴民[1,2]

第一作者：蒋露

机构：[1]甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院,兰州730000;[2]西北环境与营养相关疾病中医药防治协同创新中心,兰州730000

第一机构：甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院

年份：2025

卷号：35

期号：1

起止页码：14

中文期刊名：医学新知

外文期刊名：New Medicine

基金：国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目(82160900);甘肃省科技计划项目(24JRRA876);西北环境与营养相关疾病中医药防控研究协同创新中心开放基金项目(ZYXT-24-05)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：精神障碍;疾病负担;发病率;Joinpoint回归分析;年龄-时期-队列模型;预测

外文关键词：Mental disorders;Disease burden;Incidence;Joinpoint regression analysis;Age-period-cohort model;Prediction

摘要：目的分析1990—2021年我国精神障碍疾病负担,并预测2022—2032年发病情况。方法利用2021年全球疾病负担研究数据库,应用Joinpoint模型分析精神障碍发病变化趋势,并计算年度变化百分比和平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change,AAPC);应用年龄-时期-队列模型分析年龄、时期及队列三个因素对精神障碍的影响,并预测2022—2032年精神障碍的发病率。结果2021年我国总体居民、男性和女性的精神障碍年龄标化发病率(age-standardized incidence rate,ASIR)分别为3349.58/10万、2822.50/10万和3876.57/10万。1990—2021年我国总体居民[AAPC=-0.17%,95%CI(-0.34%,-0.03%)]和女性[AAPC=-0.33%,95%CI(-0.55%,-0.11%)]精神障碍ASIR均呈下降趋势,而男性则波动变化。年龄效应结果显示,我国居民精神障碍发病率随年龄增长呈现先上升后下降再上升的趋势。时期效应结果显示,1990—2021年我国居民精神障碍发病风险随时间推移呈现先下降后上升的趋势。出生队列效应结果显示,我国居民精神障碍发病风险随出生队列推移呈现先上升后下降再上升的趋势。预测结果显示,2022—2032年我国精神障碍ASIR将呈下降趋势。结论1990—2021年,我国居民精神障碍发病率虽整体呈下降趋势,但青少年、中老年人以及女性仍然是精神障碍防控的重点,未来应继续加强对青少年、中老年和女性人群心理健康的关注。
Objective To analyze the disease burden of mental disorders in China from 1990 to 2021 and to predict the incidence of mental disorders from 2022 to 2032.Methods The Joinpoint model was applied to analyze the trend of the incidence of mental disorders by using the Global Burden of Disease Study database in 2021,and the annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)were calculated.The age-period-cohort model was used to analyze the effects of age,period and cohort on mental disorders,and predict the incidence of mental disorders in 2022—2032.Results In 2021,the age-standardized incidence rates ASIR of mental disorders in the total population,males,and females were 3,349.58/100,000,2,822.50/100,000 and 3,876.57/100,000,respectively.From 1990 to 2021,the ASIR of mental disorders in Chinese total population[AAPC=-0.17%,95%CI(-0.34%,-0.03%)]and women[AAPC=-0.33%,95%CI(-0.55%,-0.11%)]showed a decreasing trend,while the incidence among men fluctuated.The results of the age effect showed that the incidence of mental disorders among Chinese residents increased,then decreased and then increased again as age increased.The period effect results showed that the risk of mental disorders in Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021 showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing over time.The results of the birth cohort showed that the risk of mental disorders in Chinese residents increased first,then reduced,and then increased with the transition of birth cohort.The predicted results show that the ASIR of mental disorders in China will show a downward trend from 2022 to 2032.Conclusion From 1990 to 2021,although the incidence of mental disorders in Chinese residents decreased overall,adolescents,middle-aged and elderly people and females are still the focus of prevention and control of mental disorders.In the future,the mental health of adolescents,middle-aged and elderly and female should be pay more attention.