文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Disease burden and changing trend of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer attributable to tobacco, globally and in China, the USA, the Russian Federation, and India, 1990-2021

作者：Hu, Shoucai[1,2,3];Zhang, Lingling[4];Ma, Linchong[1,2];Yang, Chenglong[1,2,3];Ma, Haotian[1,2,3];Tao, Yancheng[1,2,3];Li, Fu[1,2,3];Hu, Gawei[1,2,5,6];Li, Qingxin[1,2,6]

第一作者：Hu, Shoucai

通信作者：Hu, GW[1];Li, QX[1];Hu, GW[2];Li, QX[2];Hu, GW[3];Hu, GW[4];Li, QX[4]

机构：[1]Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Hosp Joint Logist Support Force 940, Dept Gen Thorac Surg, Qilihe Dist West Lake St 98, Lanzhou 730050, Peoples R China;[2]Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Hosp Joint Logist Support Force 940, Highland Med Dept, Lanzhou, Peoples R China;[3]Gansu Univ Tradit Chinese Med, Clin Coll 1, Lanzhou, Peoples R China;[4]Qinghai Red Cross Hosp, Dept Hepatobiliary Pancreat Surg, Xining, Peoples R China;[5]Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Hosp Joint Logist Support Force 940, Dept Gen Thorac Surg, Qilihe Dist West Lake St 98, Lanzhou 730050, Peoples R China;[6]Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Hosp Joint Logist Support Force 940, Highland Med Dept, Lanzhou 730050, Peoples R China

第一机构：Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Hosp Joint Logist Support Force 940, Dept Gen Thorac Surg, Qilihe Dist West Lake St 98, Lanzhou 730050, Peoples R China

通信机构：[1]corresponding author), Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Hosp Joint Logist Support Force 940, Dept Gen Thorac Surg, Qilihe Dist West Lake St 98, Lanzhou 730050, Peoples R China;[2]corresponding author), Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Hosp Joint Logist Support Force 940, Highland Med Dept, Lanzhou, Peoples R China;[3]corresponding author), Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Hosp Joint Logist Support Force 940, Dept Gen Thorac Surg, Qilihe Dist West Lake St 98, Lanzhou 730050, Peoples R China;[4]corresponding author), Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Hosp Joint Logist Support Force 940, Highland Med Dept, Lanzhou 730050, Peoples R China.

年份：2025

卷号：17

期号：9

起止页码：6581

外文期刊名：JOURNAL OF THORACIC DISEASE

收录：;Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-105017863802);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:001607064500020)】；

基金：This work was supported by the Science and Technology Programme for the Health Sector in Gansu Province (No. GSWSKY2022-45), the Major Army Project Subjects (No. 2021yxky010), and the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu Province (No. 24JRRA006).

语种：英文

外文关键词：Tobacco; tracheal; bronchus; and lung cancer (TBL); trends; forecasting; burden of disease

摘要：Background: The disease burden of tobacco-related tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBL) in China, the USA, the Russian Federation, and India is a global problem that cannot be ignored because of their vast populations. We analyzed disease burden trends in these nations and worldwide to inform effective control strategies. Methods: The Global Burden of Disease 2021 (GBD 2021) database was used to extract and integrate data on the burden of TBL attributable to tobacco for global regions, as well as for China, the USA, the Russian Federation, and India, from 1990 to 2021. Trends in the disease burden were analyzed using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0 software. To project future disease burden trends for the period 2022-2031, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to estimate the impact of tobacco-related TBL globally and in the selected countries. Results: From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASDR) of TBL attributable to tobacco showed a decreasing trend globally and in the USA, the Russian Federation, and India, and the ASMR and ASDR attributable to TBL caused by tobacco use have shown an upward trend in China. Compared with the global average, the burden of disease of TBL attributable to tobacco is much higher in China than in the USA, the Russian Federation, and India from 1990 to 2021. By gender, the disease burden of TBL attributable to tobacco is much higher for male patients than for female patients in 1990-2021 globally and in China, the USA, the Russian Federation, and India. As of 2021, the elderly population aged 60 years or older is the main group with the disease burden of TBL attributable to tobacco globally and in the USA, the Russian Federation, and India. As the Social Development Index (SDI) level rises, the decreasing trend in ASDR and ASMR is more pronounced. Decomposition analyses showed that the increase in ASMR and ASDR globally, in China, the USA, and India, was mainly caused by population growth, and epidemiological trends, and population growth mainly caused the increase in ASMR and ASDR in the Russian Federation. The BAPC prediction model showed that the ASMR and ASDR of TBL attributable to tobacco globally and in China, the USA, the Russian Federation, and India from 2022 to 2031 showed a decreasing trend. Conclusions: Over the past three decades, tobacco-attributable TBL disease burden has declined globally and in the USA, the Russian Federation, and India, but continues rising in China, where male and elderly populations (60+ years) bear disproportionately high burdens. Projections suggest declining trends across all regions in the next decade, though targeted interventions for high-risk demographics remain critical.