文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：2010—2021年中国居民主要呼吸系统疾病死亡趋势及预测分析

英文题名：Trend analysis and forecast of mortality in major respiratory diseases among Chinese residents from 2010 to 2021

作者：汪娆娆[1];裴文辉[1];王云超[2];杨震[1];王新华[1]

第一作者：汪娆娆

机构：[1]甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院,甘肃兰州730000;[2]甘肃中医药大学基础医学院

第一机构：甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院

年份：2024

卷号：25

期号：7

起止页码：845

中文期刊名：中国预防医学杂志

外文期刊名：Chinese Preventive Medicine

收录：CSTPCD;;CSCD:【CSCD_E2023_2024】；

基金：中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(22ZY1QA003);2022年甘肃省高等学校产业支撑计划项目(2022CYZC-53)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：呼吸系统疾病;死亡率;趋势分析

外文关键词：Respiratory diseases;Mortality rate;Trend analysis

摘要：目的了解2010—2021年中国居民主要呼吸系统疾病死亡趋势,并对2022—2026年的主要呼吸系统疾病粗死亡率及死亡数进行预测,为开展主要呼吸系统疾病预防工作提供参考依据。方法收集《中国死因监测数据集(2010—2021)》中各死因监测点人口及不同性别、年龄、地区和城乡居民的主要呼吸系统疾病死亡数据和人口资料,并用2010年人口普查数据进行标化,通过粗死亡率和标化死亡率描述主要呼吸系统疾病的死亡状况,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析标化死亡率变化趋势,组间率的比较采用χ^(2)检验,并应用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测2022—2026年主要呼吸系统疾病粗死亡率及死亡数。结果中国居民主要呼吸系统疾病的粗死亡率从2010年的70.80/10万下降至2021年的52.58/10万,年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)为-2.40%,变化趋势差异有统计学意义(t=-2.12,P=0.034);标化死亡率从2010年的91.42/10万下降至2021年的31.76/10万,变化差异有统计学意义(APC=-9.31%,t=10.17,P<0.01);男性的标化死亡率高于女性,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=170384.22,P<0.05),西部地区标化死亡率高于中部地区,中部地区高于东部地区,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=123842.02、711633.49,P<0.05),农村标化死亡率高于城市,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=577624.53,P<0.05)。主要呼吸系统疾病粗死亡率随年龄增加呈上升趋势(APC=52.76%,P<0.05),≥70岁达高峰。灰色模型GM(1,1)预测结果显示,中国居民2022—2026年主要呼吸系统疾病粗死亡率依次为53.23/10万、51.65/10万、50.13/10万、48.65/10万和47.21/10万,死亡数依次为171012例、174267例、177534例、180813例和184105例。结论2010—2021年中国居民主要呼吸系统疾病存在性别、年龄、地区和城乡差异。其中男性、≥60岁人群、西部地区和农村人群是高危人群,应给予重点关注。
Objective To understand the mortality trends of major respiratory diseases among Chinese residents from 2010 to 2021 and to forecast the crude mortality rates and the number of deaths of major respiratory diseases from 2022 to 2026,providing a reference basis preventing major respiratory diseases.Methods Data on mortality from major respiratory diseases,population,and demographic characteristics(gender,age group,region,and urban/rural areas)were collected from the Chinese Cause of Death Surveillance Dataset(2010-2021).The data were standardized using the 2010 census data.The mortality status of major respiratory diseases was described by crude mortality rate and standardized mortality rate;the trend of standardized mortality rate was analyzed by using the Joinpoint regression analysis model,and the inter-group comparisons were performed by using the chi-square test and a grey model GM(1,1)was applied to predict the crude mortality rate and the number of deaths of major respiratory diseases in the period of 2022—2026.Results The crude mortality rate of major respiratory diseases among Chinese residents declined from 70.80/100000 in 2010 to 52.58/100000 in2021,with an annual percent change(APC)of-2.40%.The difference in trend was statistically significant(t=-2.12,P=0.034).The standardized mortality rate decreased from 91.42/100000 in 2020 to 31.76/100000in 2021,with a statistically significant difference(APC=-9.31%,t=10.17,P<0.01).The standardized mortality rate was higher in males than females(χ^(2)=170384.22,P<0.05),higher in western regions than the central regions,and higher in central regions than eastern regions(χ^(2)=123842.02,711633.49,P<0.05).The standardized mortality rate in rural areas was higher than in urban areas(χ^(2)=577624.53,P<0.05).The crude mortality rates for major respiratory diseases increased with age(APC=52.76%,P<0.05),peaking at≥80 years.The forecast results of the grey model GM(1,1)showed that the crude mortality rates of major respiratory diseases among Chinese residents in 2022,2023,2024,2025,and 2026 would be 53.23/100000,51.65/100000,50.13/100000,48.65/100000,and 47.21/100000,with corresponding death numbers of171012,174267,177534,180813,and 184105 cases.Conclusions There are gender,age-specific,regional,and urban-rural differences in major respiratory diseases.Males,individuals aged≥60 years old,residents in western regions,and rural areas are the high-risk groups that should be given special attention.