文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Spatiotemporal patterns and inter-provincial inequalities of pulmonary tuberculosis in China from 20 0 0 to 2024, with projections to 2030

作者：Sun, Yan[1];Zhang, Hongwei[1];Liu, Yugang[2];Zhao, Jie[3,4,5];Li, Ning[6];Jing, Jing[7];Li, Peng[4,5,8]

第一作者：Sun, Yan

通信作者：Li, P[1];Li, P[2]

机构：[1]Shaanxi Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Dept TB & Leprosy, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;[2]Xian Chest Hosp, Dept Thorac Surg, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;[3]Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Sch Publ Hlth, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;[4]Minist Educ, Dept Epidemiol, Key Lab Hazard Assessment & Control Special Operat, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;[5]Fourth Mil Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Shaanxi Prov Key Lab Free Rad Biol & Med, Shaanxi Prov Key Lab Environm Hlth Hazard Assessme, Xian, Peoples R China;[6]Xian Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Dept Infect Dis Control & Prevent, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;[7]Baoji Univ Arts & Sci, Coll Geog & Environm, Baoji 721013, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;[8]Fourth Mil Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Shaanxi Prov Key Lab Environm Hlth Hazard Assessme, Xian 710032, Shaanxi, Peoples R China

第一机构：Shaanxi Prov Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Dept TB & Leprosy, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China

通信机构：[1]corresponding author), Minist Educ, Dept Epidemiol, Key Lab Hazard Assessment & Control Special Operat, Xian, Shaanxi, Peoples R China;[2]corresponding author), Fourth Mil Med Univ, Sch Publ Hlth, Shaanxi Prov Key Lab Environm Hlth Hazard Assessme, Xian 710032, Shaanxi, Peoples R China.

年份：2026

卷号：168

外文期刊名：INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

收录：;WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:001760416000001)】；

基金：This work was supported by Shaanxi Province Key Research and Development Program (grant no. 2025SF-YBXM-168) .

语种：英文

外文关键词：Spatiotemporal patterns; Pulmonary tuberculosis; Health inequality; China

摘要：Objectives: To provide a timely update on the evolving spatiotemporal patterns of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence in China, project trends through 2030, and assess interprovincial inequalities nationwide. Methods: Using data from the China Public Health Science Data Center and the National PTB Surveillance Report, we employed spatiotemporal approaches to examine the evolving patterns in the incidence of PTB, project PTB incidence to 2030 through five models, and evaluated interprovincial inequalities using the Slope of Inequality Index (SII) and the Concentration Index of Inequality (CII). Results: Nationally, the reported PTB incidence counts and rates were 569,081 cases and 40.4 per 10 0,0 0 0 population in 2024, despite a decrease of-0.3% (95% confidence interval [CI]:-0.7%-0.2%) in rate since 20 0 0, and the rate is projected to declined to 37.7 (95% CI: 18.3-57.1) per 10 0,0 0 0 population by 2030. In 2024, Tibet had the largest incidence rate per 10 0,0 0 0 population of 126.2, followed by 87.2 in Guizhou and 79.4 in Qinghai provinces, respectively. Additionally, both absolute and relative inequalities of PTB incidence rate have widened across provinces from 20 0 0 to 2024, with a diverging trajectory by 2030 under status quo scenarios. Conclusion: Without additional interventions, the disparities in PTB incidence rates among provinces are likely to further widen by 2030. Targeted resource allocation and differentiated prevention strategies are urgently needed for high-incidence, economically disadvantaged provinces. (c) 2026 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)