文献类型：期刊文献

英文题名：Exploratory analysis of COVID-19 propagation using logistic model

作者：Zhang, Xing[1];Da, Chunhe[1,2,3];Ye, Wenjuan[1,3]

第一作者：张欣;张翔;张勰;张旋

通信作者：Da, CH[1];Da, CH[2];Da, CH[3]

机构：[1]Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Clin Med Coll 1, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;[2]Baiyin Municipal Hlth Commiss, Baiyin, Gansu, Peoples R China;[3]First Peoples Hosp Baiyin, Baiyin, Gansu, Peoples R China

第一机构：甘肃中医药大学

通信机构：[1]corresponding author), Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Clin Med Coll 1, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;[2]corresponding author), Baiyin Municipal Hlth Commiss, Baiyin, Gansu, Peoples R China;[3]corresponding author), First Peoples Hosp Baiyin, Baiyin, Gansu, Peoples R China.|[10735]甘肃中医药大学;

年份：2025

卷号：13

期号：3

外文期刊名：PEERJ

收录：;Scopus(收录号：2-s2.0-105000420817);WOS:【SCI-EXPANDED(收录号:WOS:001476675100001)】；

基金：We would like to convey our profound gratitude to the First People's Hospital of Baiyin for generously furnishing us with graduation accommodation facilities and research equipment, enabling us to study and reside comfortably at this esteemed institution.

语种：英文

外文关键词：Pandemic transmission; COVID-19; National policy; Logistic model

摘要：Pandemics pose significant threats to social, economic, and public health. The novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which emerged in late 2019, quickly became a global public health crisis due to its high contagion and pathogenicity. Using data from the World Health Organization (WHO), this study applied the Logistic model to analyze the spread patterns of COVID-19 in 16 countries with over 10 million infections from 2020 to 2023. The findings reveal that as of December 31, 2023, global infections exceeded 772 million with over seven million deaths. The USA and China had the highest infection numbers, while Brazil had the highest mortality rate. The study identified three main outbreak patterns: initial, late, and gradual development, reflecting different stages of the pandemic. Countries with earlier outbreaks, such as India, Brazil, the USA, and Argentina, generally had higher mortality rates, while those with later outbreaks, such as China, Pakistan, Japan, and Australia, had lower mortality rates. Significant differences were observed in the duration and speed of the spread, with China showing the shortest average duration and Russia the longest. The Logistic model's parameter k values revealed policy adjustments, with Australia, Vietnam, and China showing significant changes over time, while the USA, France, and Russia showed less impact on epidemic control. These results provide an important perspective for understanding global pandemic transmission patterns and assessing the effectiveness of quarantine strategies across countries. They also provide a scientific basis for future public health policy and pandemic response development, helping countries to develop more targeted prevention and control strategies according to the characteristics of virus transmission, rationally allocate medical resources, and reduce social harm.