文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：1990―2021年非最适温度暴露对全球慢性阻塞性肺疾病负担的影响

英文题名：Impact of non-optimal temperatures exposures on the global burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease from 1990 to 2021

作者：黄怡炜[1];王佳[1];李永悦[1];林昇[1];郑锴[1];杨盈盈[1];刘铭轩[1];王学军[1];吴建军[1]

第一作者：黄怡炜

机构：[1]甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院,兰州730000

第一机构：甘肃中医药大学公共卫生学院

年份：2026

卷号：26

期号：1

起止页码：16

中文期刊名：中国循证医学杂志

外文期刊名：Chinese Journal of Evidence-based Medicine

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：甘肃省联合科研基金重大项目(编号:24JRRA876)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：慢性阻塞性肺病;死亡;残疾调整生命年;高温;低温;非最适温度

外文关键词：Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease;Death;Disability-adjusted life year;High temperature;Low temperature;Non-optimal temperature

摘要：目的利用2021年全球疾病负担数据,分析1990年至2021年期间因高温、低温和非最适温度造成的全球慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)的疾病负担。方法利用2021年全球疾病负担数据分析高温、低温和非最适温度导致的全球、地区和国家COPD死亡率和残疾调整寿命年数。统计分析采用了joinpoint回归、年龄-时期-队列模型和贝叶斯预测模型。结果全球低温和非最适温度相关COPD的年龄标准化的死亡率和残疾调整寿命年率均呈下降趋势,而高温负担呈上升趋势,在所有指标中,低温负担始终超过高温影响。明显的地域差异显示:南亚的高温死亡率最高;东亚的低温归因负担最重;高收入的北美洲高温死亡率加快。中等社会人口学指数(SDI)地区的最高低温负担,以及中低SDI地区的主要高温影响。年龄模式上15~39岁人群与高温相关负担上升,而80岁以上的老年人低温负担上升。贝叶斯预测显示了性别差异轨迹:男性的低体温负担持续下降,而女性的低体温负担减轻(2020―2030年)。结论非最适温度中低温暴露是全球COPD的风险因素,但高温暴露呈上升趋势。地域差异显著。需重点关注易受低温影响的老年人、职业性高温暴露的成年人和需康复支持的老年妇女三类重点人群并实施针对性干预措施。
Objective To quantify the global burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)attributable to high temperature,low temperature,and non-optimal temperature from 1990 to 2021 using the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 data.Methods Based on the GBD 2021 data,we analyzed global,regional,and national COPD mortality and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)from COPD attributable to high,low,and non-optimal temperatures.Joinpoint regression,age-period-cohort modeling,and Bayesian prediction models were employed.Results Globally,age-standardized mortality rates(ASMR)and age-standardized DALYs rates(ASDR)for COPD attributable to low temperature and non-optimal temperature declined.However,the burden from high temperature increased.Low temperature consistently exerted a greater burden than high temperature across all metrics.Significant geographical disparities emerged:high-temperature mortality was highest in South Asia;low-temperature burden was most severe in East Asia;and high-income North America exhibited accelerated high-temperature mortality growth.The highest low-temperature burden occurred in middle-SDI region,while high-temperature impacts predominated in low-middle-SDI region.Age patterns showed rising high-temperature burden in the 15-39 age group and increasing low-temperature burden among adults≥80 years old.Bayesian projections revealed divergent gender trajectories:a continuing decline in low-temperature burden for males versus a decelerated decline for females(2020-2030).Conclusion Low temperature exposure remains the primary risk factor for COPD within non-optimal temperatures globally,although high-temperature impacts are increasing.Significant regional variations necessitate targeted interventions for three key populations:older adults vulnerable to cold,working-age adults with occupational heat exposure,and older women requiring rehabilitative support.