文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：1990—2021年全球与中国≥60岁人群高血压性心脏病的疾病负担分析

英文题名：Analysis of the disease burden of hypertensive heart disease among individuals aged≥60 years globally and in China from 1990 to 2021

作者：李嘉丽[1];任春贞[1];刘璠[1];王可妍[1];毕志江[2];赵晓晓[3];柯立鑫[4];王海博[5];彭文茜[6];王志飞[6];张强[7];徐鹏[8];李应东[1,9];邓秀秀[1];赵信科[1,9];卢存存[1,9]

第一作者：李嘉丽

机构：[1]甘肃中医药大学中西医结合学院,兰州730101;[2]青海省中医院心血管内科,西宁810000;[3]山东中医药大学附属医院老年医学中心,济南250014;[4]格罗宁根大学儿科学实验室,荷兰格罗宁根9713GZ;[5]甘肃中医药大学附属医院重症医学科,兰州730000;[6]中国中医科学院中医临床基础医学研究所,北京100700;[7]河南中医药大学第一附属医院,郑州450000;[8]中国中医科学院中国医史文献研究所,北京100700;[9]甘肃中医药大学中西医结合研究所,兰州730101

第一机构：甘肃中医药大学中西医结合学院

年份：2026

卷号：33

期号：2

起止页码：281

中文期刊名：中国胸心血管外科临床杂志

外文期刊名：Chinese Journal of Clinical Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery

收录：;北大核心:【北大核心2023】；

基金：国家自然科学基金项目(82360926);甘肃省科技重大专项计划(20ZD7FA002)。

语种：中文

中文关键词：高血压性心脏病;老年人;人口老龄化;疾病负担;预测模型;年龄标准化率;全球疾病负担数据库;社会人口学指数

外文关键词：Hypertensive heart disease;older adults;population aging;disease burden;prediction model;agestandardized rate;Global Burden of Disease Database;sociodemographic index

摘要：目的系统分析1990—2021年全球与中国老年(≥60岁)高血压性心脏病(hypertensive heart disease,HHD)疾病负担特征,并预测其在2022—2040年的发展趋势,旨在为优化HHD的综合防控决策提供数据支撑。方法基于全球疾病负担2021数据库,收集并整理全球、中国及5个社会人口学指数(sociodemographic index,SDI)地区老年HHD患病人数和伤残调整生命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALYs)等指标。运用Joinpoint回归分析老年HHD年龄标准化患病率和年龄标准化DALYs率的变化趋势。采用三因素分解方法分析老龄化、人口增长和流行病学变化对老年HHD负担改变的相对贡献,并使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测2022—2040年老年HHD负担状况。结果2021年,全球、中国老年HHD的患病人数分别为1028.30万例、341.24万例,较1990年分别增长179.20%、159.20%;DALYs数分别为1881.27万人年、473.14万人年,较1990年分别增长76.08%、29.45%。同时,不同SDI地区老年HHD患病人数和DALYs数的增幅不一。1990—2021年中国老年HHD的年龄标准化患病率以及中国和全球老年HHD的年龄标准化DALYs率均呈显著下降趋势(平均年度变化百分比均<0,P均<0.001)。2021年全球、中国老年HHD患病人数、DALYs数占比最高的年龄组均为70~74岁组。分解分析显示人口增长是驱动各地区老年HHD负担增加的主要因素。预测模型结果表明,预计2022—2040年全球与中国老年HHD患病人数以及DALYs数将持续上升,且中国2024年较2021年的老年HHD负担增幅将高于全球平均水平。结论过去32年来,尽管全球及中国老年HHD年龄标准化疾病负担率主要呈下降趋势,但其疾病负担的绝对数量却明显增加;预计未来其将持续上升,且中国的负担增幅将高于全球平均水平。因此,目前迫切需要实施精准防控措施以有效控制老年HHD疾病负担。
Objective To systematically analyze the characteristics of the disease burden of hypertensive heart disease(HHD)in the elderly(≥60 years)globally and in China from 1990 to 2021,and to predict its future trends from 2022 to 2040,with the aim of providing data support for optimizing comprehensive prevention and control strategies for HHD.Methods Based on the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,the number of prevalent cases and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)of HHD in the elderly were extracted for the world,China,and five regions categorized by sociodemographic index(SDI).Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the temporal trends of agestandardized prevalence rate and age-standardized DALYs rate of HHD in the elderly.A three-factor decomposition method was applied to evaluate the relative contributions of aging,population growth,and epidemiological changes to the variations in the elderly HHD burden.Additionally,a Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the elderly HHD burden from 2022 to 2040.Results In 2021,the number of prevalent elderly HHD cases reached 10283000 globally and 3412400 in China,representing increases of 179.20% and 159.20% respectively,compared with 1990.The DALYs of elderly HHD were 18812700 person-years globally and 4731400 person-years in China,rising by 76.08% and 29.45% respectively from 1990.Meanwhile,the growth rates of the number of prevalent cases and DALYs of elderly HHD varied across different SDI regions.From 1990 to 2021,the age-standardized prevalence rate of elderly HHD in China,as well as the age-standardized DALYs rate of elderly HHD both globally and in China,showed significant downward trends(all average annual percentage changes<0,all P<0.001).In 2021,the 70-74 years age group accounted for the highest proportion of prevalent cases and DALYs of elderly HHD,both globally and in China.Decomposition analysis revealed that population growth was the dominant factor driving the increase in the elderly HHD burden across all regions.The prediction model results indicated that the number of prevalent cases and DALYs of elderly HHD would continue to rise globally and in China from 2022 to 2040,with the growth rate of the elderly HHD burden in China between 2021 and 2040 expected to exceed the global average.Conclusion Over the past 32 years,although the age-standardized disease rates of elderly HHD have mainly shown a downward trend globally and in China,the absolute number of the disease burden has increased substantially.The projection model indicates a continued upward trajectory,with the growth rate in China higher than the global average.Therefore,there is an urgent need to implement precise prevention and control strategies to effectively mitigate the disease burden of elderly HHD.