文献类型：期刊文献

中文题名：我国社会保障支出、居民消费与GDP的关系研究

英文题名：Relationship among Social Security Expenditure,Resident Consumption and GDP in China

作者：王秀兰[1];张士辉[2]

第一作者：王秀兰

机构：[1]甘肃中医药大学经贸与管理学院,甘肃兰州730000;[2]甘肃交通职业技术学院信息工程系,甘肃兰州730070

第一机构：甘肃中医药大学经贸与管理学院

年份：2015

卷号：16

期号：6

起止页码：66

中文期刊名：西南交通大学学报（社会科学版）

外文期刊名：Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University(Social Sciences)

收录：国家哲学社会科学学术期刊数据库

基金：2014年度甘肃省教育科学规划"十二五"第二批科研项目"基于CDIO工程教育理念的计算机网络技术专业人才培养方案的研究"

语种：中文

中文关键词：社会保障;居民消费;国内生产总值;宏观经济;经济增长;有效需求;经济周期

外文关键词：social security ; resident consumption ; GDP; macro economy ; economic growth ; effective demand; economic cycle

摘要：随着我国经济进入新常态，社会保障支出、居民消费与GDP增长之间的相互关系引起了更多的社会关注。在VAR模型等方法基础上，通过对1978—2010年我国国内生产总值、居民消费支出、平均消费倾向和边际消费倾向等各项数据进行实证分析，发现：我国社会保障支出增长对居民消费和GDP具有显著的正向拉动作用，社会保障支出在经济危机时期发挥了自动稳定器作用。但社会保障支出具有刚性作用和棘轮效应，我国既要避免社会保障支出的短板效应，又要提防社会保障支出增加过快造成的西方社会福利病，三者之间应按比例保持协调发展。
As China＇s economy entering a new normal phase, the growth in social security expenditures, resident consumption and GDP has drawn more social attention. In this paper, VAR Model is used to analyze the relationship among GDP, resident consumption, average propensity to consume, marginal propensity to consume and etc. based on data for the period between 1978 and 2010. The results show that social security expenditure had a significantly positive effect on consumption and GDP, and it played a great role in stabilizing Chinese economic development in times of crisis. But it also had a Bucket Effect and Ratchet Effect. As a result, China should not only prevent its Bucket Effect, but also attempt to avoid heavy social welfare burden like western developed countries. We must secure a proportionate development of the three.